By Pritam Biswas
July 23 (Reuters) – Prediction market startup Kalshi scored well during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, netting roughly double its projected user traffic and trading volume as fans scrambled to turn their soccer savvy into profits.
Kalshi recorded $27 billion in trading volume and saw about 3 million users during the length of the tournament, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. The competition ran its expanded 48-team format this year and became the most lucrative in FIFA’s history.
The source said the startup had expected $13 billion in volume and about 1.5 million users during the tournament, which opened at Estadio Azteca in Mexico and ended in New Jersey, where Spain beat Lionel Messi’s defending champions Argentina to lift the trophy for a second time.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket let people wager on the outcome of events such as sports and elections and have gained popularity since the 2024 Presidential election.
The tournament numbers catapult Kalshi into a wider genre of event contracts, even though it has been in a tussle with regulatory bodies across states over gambling laws.
Kalshi will start taking bets on the outcomes of clinical trials and FDA regulatory reviews, it said earlier in the month, making drug-development odds public for the first time.
LEGAL RED CARDS PILE UP
Critics argue that such platforms are nothing more than illegal gambling operations that promotes addictive behavior and is vulnerable to insider trading.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez is under investigation by federal regulators over potential insider trading on Kalshi, Reuters reported last week, citing two sources familiar with the matter.
Kalshi flagged the suspicious activity through information collected via its onboarding and market surveillance processes, and referred it to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Kalshi is also engaged in litigation with several states that have accused it of violating gaming laws by letting users bet on sporting events.
Massachusetts was the first to seek an injunction, and earlier this week Washington secured an order to block Kalshi after a judge ruled Kalshi’s so-called event contracts likely violated the state’s gambling laws.
(Reporting by Pritam Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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