By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in coming months, with new U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh joining a unanimous decision that effectively acknowledges the Trump administration’s inability so far to control inflation.
While President Donald Trump had promised to lower prices on his watch, the combined impact of his global import tariffs, an energy shock following the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and capital spending from the artificial intelligence boom has kept price pressures intense enough that the Fed felt it needed to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range.
New policy projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers anticipate at least one more quarter-percentage-point hike by the end of this year, with only two of them seeing rates remaining stable from here. Warsh apparently again did not submit a rate projection.
It’s the first policy shift under the new Fed chief, who took office in late May after being selected by Trump with an expectation that he would cut rates.
The dollar rose against the euro after the Fed’s announcement, while U.S. Treasury bond yields held largely steady, having already weakened in anticipation of the hike. After hitting a 19-year high above 5% on Monday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.958%, compared to 4.946% just prior to the announcement.
The 30-year bond yield dipped to 5.312% after trading at 5.327% just before the announcement. Stocks were mostly higher, with the S&P 500 index up 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.7%.
Market bets on a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in late October ticked higher to 56.5% from 54% prior to the hike, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“The Federal Reserve’s decision today to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point reflects its continued focus on addressing persistent inflation. While inflation has moderated from peak levels, it has remained elevated enough to prompt additional action from the Federal Open Market Committee,” said Michele Raneri, head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion in Chicago.
ALL EYES ON WARSH
The Fed’s new policy statement and economic projections show a central bank opening the door on tighter monetary policy through next year, with the policy rate rising to the 4.00%-4.25% range by the end of this year and ending 2027 at the same level.
“Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2% goal,” the central bank said in its policy statement after the end of a two-day meeting.
While the statement withheld any forward guidance about coming policy decisions, as is Warsh’s preference, the decision is likely to ease doubts that the Fed chief would hold off on tighter policy out of deference to Trump, a lingering question during his first months in office.
The statement dropped a previous reference attributing current elevated inflation to “supply shocks,” particularly in the energy sector, a nod to concerns among policymakers, including Warsh, that price pressures were too broad for comfort.
Warsh is scheduled to hold a press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT) to elaborate on the decision.
The rate increase was announced less than two months ahead of midterm elections that will determine whether Trump’s Republicans maintain control of Congress for the final two years of his presidency. The Republicans are facing an uphill battle with voters angry about gasoline prices that are about a third higher than a year ago and interest rates on home mortgages that have been rising steadily this year. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is approaching 7%.
Policymakers’ new quarterly economic projections marked up estimates of inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, to 3.7% versus the 3.6% projected at the Fed’s June meeting. Inflation is not projected to return to the 2% target until 2029, a year later than previously expected.
Economic growth was marked up slightly from 2.2% to 2.3%, while the unemployment rate is seen ending the year at 4.1%, versus the 4.3% projected in June.
Warsh’s characterization at his press conference of the logic behind the rate increase and the likelihood of further action will be important in shaping the reaction in financial markets that have been raising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The rate hike on Wednesday was widely expected, but investors will be looking for further information from the Fed chief about what might prompt additional increases in borrowing costs.
Warsh has pledged to lower inflation back to 2% “clearly and at sufficient speed” by raising rates as needed.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; additional reporting by David Lawder and Saeed Azhar; Editing by Paul Simao)
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